Smart Phones and Dumb Terminals

There’s something definitely happening here… Tuesday’s WSJ cites an IDC report suggesting that world-wide shipments of dumb terminals will increase by 21.5% through 2010 (to six million units). As more and more software goes web-based and software-as-a-service, there is less and less need to keep data on the desktop. The benefits are such as reduced cost and increased security are obvious — even if you haven’t fully adopted SaaS. The article highlights one company that was able to replace 750 desktops for 1.2 million dollars. The PM on the project admits that it cost about the same as it would have for new PCs, but they’ll save money in lower hardware refresh rates (there were some additional advantages through server consolidation). The article also cites Gartner, suggesting that the savings can range between 10% and 40%. The downside of course is the decreased flexibility of reduced availability of some applications (i.e. potentially unsanctioned applications such as instant messaging). It should be interesting to watch this unfolds as SaaS increases in popularity and as the cost of “commodity” computing continues to rise with the roll-out of Vista and the new Office Professional.

In contrast, other reports on the rise of smart phones suggest an opposite, but potentially complementary trend. That is, more and more (personal and professional) data is findings its way onto smart devices (that can be more easily be lost stolen or otherwise damaged). If these trends continue, I think we’ll see a real stratification on the types of hardware that people use for business vs. what they use personally. If you can shop, social network, listen to music and organize photos using a lightweight, but powerful, smart phone, why bother taking the risk of doing it using company resources? On the flip side, why lug around a laptop if you can do what you need to for work through your smart-phone browser?